November 21, 2008
India Seeking Polar Role in New World Order:
US Study By Arun Kumar
Washington
Striving for a multi-polar international system, India will seek to
emerge as one of the poles while serving as a political and cultural
bridge between a rising China and the US, according to a US
intelligence study.
"India's growing international confidence, derived primarily from
its economic growth and its successful democratic record, now drives
New Delhi toward partnerships with many countries," said the
National Intelligence Council's "Global Trends 2025 - A Transformed
World" report released here Thursday.
However, these partnerships are aimed at maximizing India's
autonomy, not at aligning India with any country or international
coalition, added the report based on a global survey of experts and
trends by US intelligence analysts.
Timed to be ready for the administration of US President-elect
Barack Obama, who takes office Jan 20, the report said: "Indian
leaders do not see Washington as a military or economic patron and
now believe the international situation has made such a benefactor
unnecessary."
"New Delhi will, however, pursue the benefits of favorable US ties,
partly, too, as a hedge against any development of hostile ties with
China.
"Indian policymakers are convinced that US capital, technology, and
goodwill are essential to India's continued rise as a global power,"
the report said.
The US will remain one of India's largest export destinations, the
key to international financial institutions such as the World Bank
and foreign commercial lending, and the largest source of
remittances.
"The Indian diaspora, composed largely of highly skilled
professionalism, will remain a key element in deepening US-Indian
ties," it said. "The Indian market for US goods will grow
substantially as New Delhi reduces restrictions on trade and
investment."
India's military also will be eager to benefit from expanded defence
ties with Washington, the report said. "Indian leaders, however,
will probably avoid ties that could resemble an alliance
relationship."
At home, with India remaining confident that it can contain the
Kashmiri separatist movement, regional and ethnic insurgencies are
unlikely to threaten India's unity, but the growing reach of the
Maoist movement would lead to heightened violence and instability in
several parts of the country, it said.
"Regional and ethnic insurgencies that have plagued India since
independence are likely to persist, but they will not threaten
India's unity We assess New Delhi will remain confident that it can
contain the Kashmiri separatist movement.
"However, India is likely to experience heightened violence and
instability in several parts of the country because of the growing
reach of the Maoist Naxalite movement," the report.
On the economic front, it predicted that India probably will
continue to enjoy relatively rapid economic growth.
"Although India faces lingering deficiencies in its domestic
infrastructure, skilled labor, and energy production, we expect the
nation's rapidly expanding middle class, youthful population,
reduced reliance on agriculture, and high domestic savings and
investment rates to propel continued economic growth.
"India's impressive economic growth over the past 15 years has
reduced the number of people living in absolute poverty, but the
growing gap between rich and poor will become a more important
political issue.
"The general direction of India's economic policymaking is unlikely
to be reversed, but the pace and scale of reform will fluctuate,"
the report said.
"We believe Indians will remain strongly committed to democracy, but
the polity could become more fragmented and fractious, with national
power being shared across successive political coalitions.
"Future elections are likely to be multi-sided affairs yielding
awkward coalitions with unclear mandates," it added.
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