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June 11, 2008
Obama
or McCain, How will Nuclear Deal Fare?
By Manish Chand
New Delhi
With Barack Obama winning the Democratic presidential nomination,
there are anxieties among the government and strategic circles here
that if the nuclear deal is not concluded this year, it will have a
tougher time in the event of a Democratic dispensation in
Washington.
"If the nuclear deal does not go through during the term of the
George Bush administration, it will not survive in its present
form," Lalit Mansingh, former foreign secretary and a former
ambassador of India to the US, told IANS.
"If it's a Democrat, it is almost certain they will have a rethink
on 123 (bilateral India-US nuclear agreement) and make sure it's
compatible with their stricter non-proliferation norms," said
Mansingh who served as New Delhi's envoy to Washington during
2001-2004.
"Democrats are trying to revive the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Unlike the last time when they failed in 1999, if they manage to get
CTBT passed in Congress there is no way India can hold out as a lone
ranger," he stressed.
"However, if Senator John McCain of the Republican Party winds, the
deal will sail through," he said.
"With Republicans we are sure about the nuclear deal. But with
Democrats we have to wait and watch," a top official, privy to
India-US nuclear negotiations, said, indicating the unease in the
government about the fate of the deal under the next US
administration.
The July 18, 2005, nuclear deal is currently stalled by strong
political opposition to it, including from the Indian government's
Communist allies.
India has yet to clinch a safeguards agreement with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and win a waiver from the
Nuclear Suppliers Group by July this year so that the 123 agreement
can be ratified by the US Congress before it heads for its summer
recess in August.
With the clock ticking away, the chances of India wrapping up its
nuclear deal with the US are looking increasingly remote.
K. Subrahmanyam, a strategic expert who is often consulted by the
government, finds such anxieties misplaced.
"Obama voted for the deal. He will not create problems. There will
be mischief from the so-called nuclear ayatollahs, but they are now
more sober," he said.
If India manages to win NSG waiver, there will be enormous pressure
on the next US administration to complete the deal as they would not
like Russia and France walking away with nuclear business,
Subrahmanyam told IANS.
Moreover, if Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democrat
vice-presidential candidate, Mansingh points out, it will be a
"dream ticket" for India.
IANS
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June 11, 2008
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