May 3, 2008 India-Iran Gas
Pipeline "Infeasible" for Now: US Expert By Mayank
Chhaya
Chicago
The proposed Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline is "absolutely infeasible"
in the foreseeable future because financial, political, legal and
security circumstances do not support it, a well-informed American
expert says.
"None of the three countries involved in the talks has the resources
to fund the pipeline. There are serious security concerns,
especially because it passes through Baluchistan in Pakistan.
Virtually no public or private consortiums would want to build it
because there is now also the issue of Iran's nuclear quest,"
Christine Faire, a senior political scientist at the think tank Rand
Corporation, told IANS.
Asked why then there is such a sanguine mood in India, Iran and
Pakistan about the pipeline, Faire said, "It is posturing about the
future. From India's point of view it is about locking in price and
access in the future when Iran will have normalized its relations
with the world. "She said when even former Iranian President
Mohammad Khatami, "the sanest of them all", could not normalize
relations with the world, it will be unrealistic to expect the
current President, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, or his future successor to
do so that easily.
She also pointed out other seriously inhibiting factors such as the
festering tensions between Pakistan and its province of Baluchistan.
"No one believes that Pakistan will be able to deal with Baluchistan
fairly," she said. That, in her judgment, creates serious security
challenges to the pipeline. "No fool would want to invest in such a
project," Faire said.
Other experts quoted on the National Public Radio also seemed to
underscore either the unfeasibility or the unlikelihood of the
pipeline in the foreseeable future. Some of them say perhaps even
Iran itself will stall the pipeline project eventually.
Robert Johnston of the Eurasia Group was quoted as saying that the
deal between Iran and India may not happen for at least a decade or
two given the rising domestic demand in Iran. He said Iran will also
have to take a strategic decision on how it wants to expand its gas
production and which projects bring in most money. "Ultimately Iran
will find better projects for its gas. Two other options which are
most attractive are either developing pipelines to Western Europe
via Turkey or developing the LNG (liquefied natural gas) market in
Asia," Johnston said.
Asked why despite all the uncertainty over it, the US was so anxious
about the pipeline, Faire told IANS, "It is the symbolism of it all
that rankles the US. The US has been wrestling with India's
relations with Iran." In this context, she said while the Bush
administration had decided to go ahead with the civilian nuclear
deal with New Delhi by making a country-specific exception to the US
non-proliferation laws, Congress was not convinced about it.
"Congress expects India to be sensitive to US concerns about Iran's
nuclear ambitions," Faire said.
Mike Green of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),
was quoted as saying, "Quiet diplomacy will be effective. If we are
going to be too loud about it we would risk giving the opponents of
close US-India ties a nice weapon to beat up the (Indian)
government."
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