March 22, 2008 Busy Beijing's
Low-key Approach
to Taiwan's Presidential Election
Beijing
Preoccupied for the last two weeks with Tibetan independence
protests and the diplomatic fallout from its attempts to contain
them, mainland China's ruling Communist Party has taken a low-key
approach to Taiwan's presidential election.
The election has taken a back seat for a cautious government
concerned that its tough, threatening stance may have helped sway
the 2000 presidential election for the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP).
The government's attention is focussed instead on efforts to limit
damage to its international image as its cracks down on violent
protests in Tibetan areas.
The influential Southern Weekend newspaper Friday ran a front-page
preview of the Taiwan election with a large photograph of
Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) contender Ma Ying-jeou's
supporters at an election rally in Taipei.
"In this election the smoke and the shouting are not as exciting as
in the last one (in 2004), but there are still many mysteries," it
said.
The newspaper avoided any comment on the relative merits of the two
presidential candidates and did not mention the Chinese government's
position or its broader policies on Taiwan.
If Ma wins, China will expect him to make good on his promises
during his election campaign to improve relations between Taipei and
Beijing, which remained fractious during Chen Shu-bian's eight years
as Taiwan's president.
The Communist Party accuses Chen of seeking formal independence for
the island that it still sees as a breakaway province to be
"reunified" with the mainland eventually, by force if necessary.
Over the last three years, it has apparently tried to isolate Chen.
In the absence of formal talks with the DPP, it has arranged several
high-profile visits by former KMT leader Lien Chan and other
opposition leaders over the past three years.
Lien's first meeting with party leader and state President Hu Jintao
in 2005 was the highest-level contact between the two parties since
the KMT fled to Taiwan in 1949 following a civil war.
State television gave his trips similar blanket coverage to visits
by US President George W. Bush and other international leaders.
Premier Wen Jiabao last week promised to expand the range and scope
of business with Taiwan, saying the mainland was "ready to make
necessary sacrifices" to "serve the interests of people in Taiwan".
"We will continue to increase exchanges in economic and trade fields
with Taiwan, particularly we want to resume the three direct links
between the two sides as quickly as possible," Wen told reporters,
referring to postal, trade and transportation services.
At the start of this month's National People's Congress, China's
nominal parliament, spokesman Jiang Enzhu reiterated the
government's opposition to Taiwan's referendum on the island's UN
membership.
He warned that Chen and other leaders were "destined to pay a dear
price" if they moved towards formal independence for the island, but
Beijing's initial angry opposition to the referendum has also
subsided in the last few weeks before the election.
Jiang announced an increase in China's military budget for this year
by another 17.6 percent, following similar large defence hikes in
recent years.
He defended the increase as "moderate" and necessary for military
modernization, rejecting a US military report Monday that said
China's military build-up could fuel instability in Asia,
particularly in the Taiwan Strait.
Wen also defended the budget hike but he did not use the mainland
leaders' usual threat that they "reserve the right to use force" if
Taiwan declares formal independence or stalls on holding talks.
Yet whoever wins the election will know that sooner or later,
perhaps after the Olympics this August, the Communist Party is
likely to begin applying pressure for the new Taiwan leader to hold
talks on "peaceful reunification".
"We will work for the early resumption of cross-Strait negotiations
on the basis of the one-China principle to address major issues of
concern to compatriots on both sides," Wen said in his government
work report for 2008.
"Reunification of the two sides is inevitable in the course of the
great rejuvenation for the Chinese nation," he said.
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