January
28, 2008
Britain Faces Recession,
India, China Can't Help: Deloitte By Dipankar De Sarkar
London
The global financial crisis is set to affect the British economy,
which is about to enter its weakest period of growth in 15 years
without any prospect of a bailout by the US, China or India,
Deloitte said Monday.
Britain also faces the risk of a recession in the next two years,
the Deloitte Economic Review warns, adding that that the housing
market would be at the heart of the downturn, with prices falling by
about five percent this year and eight percent in 2009.
"The global financial crisis and the associated credit crunch have
brought an end to the period of easy credit that in recent years has
been the bedrock of rapid rises in house prices," said Roger Bootle,
Deloitte's economic adviser.
A prolonged period of economic downturn may also force employers to
"wield the axe more sharply", the report said.
Deloitte, a global auditing and financial services company, expects
the British economy to grow by 2 percent this year and by a slightly
smaller margin in 2009 - down from 3.2 percent in 2006.
Deloitte said Britain would not be bailed out of its downturn by
another major economy, saying it expects US growth to slow to zero
in the first half of this year.
Europe, which is Britain's biggest export market, will remain
relatively strong but will not be able to offset a downturn.
Neither, it said, will India and China be able to help Britain as
the two countries buy less than five percent of British exports.
The Deloitte report brings mixed news for India.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram told a meeting in Davos last week
that his hunch was that the US economy will probably slow down,
growing at 1 to 1.5 percent for the next two to three quarters
before bouncing back.
Any slowdown in Britain too will affect India. The trade in goods in
alone was worth 4.4 billion pounds last year, with the balance of
trade slightly in favour of India.
British imports of Indian goods were worth 2.5 billion pounds, while
its exports to India amounted to 1.9 billion pounds.
The news that the European economy will remain relatively strong
should bring some cheer to corporate India. Chidambaram told the
World Economic Forum that the Indian economy could be affected if
the turmoil in the US affects Europe.
The Deloitte report forecasts that the British base rate will fall
to 4 percent in 2009 from 5.5 percent now.
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