June 24, 2007
Uncertainty in Pakistan:
Peace Process On Hold By Manish
Chand
New Delhi
Political uncertainty in Pakistan sparked by mass protests against
President Pervez Musharraf and threats by exiled leaders that New
Delhi should not rush to sign agreements with the military-backed
regime may have forced India to put the peace diplomacy with its
neighbour on hold.
Although New Delhi will not like the power tussle and uncertainty in
Pakistan to jeopardise its three-year-old peace process with
Islamabad, there is a growing feeling in South Block that Musharraf
is losing control and that it makes sense to wait and watch before
thinking of any major initiative, reliable sources privy to the
government thinking told IANS.
"A person who is so engrossed in internal affairs can't have much
time for serious political dialogue with India. India should be wary
of any high-level political dialogue with Pakistan," G.
Parthasarathy, former Indian ambassador to Pakistan, told IANS.
Agrees Kuldip Nayar, veteran journalist and keen Pakistan-watcher:
"The peace process has been put on the backburner. Musharraf's
position has weakened after civil society, including lawyers and
media, turned against him following the sacking of the chief justice
and subsequent mishandling by imposing curbs on the media."
Nayar advises New Delhi to be cautious in its dealings with
Musharraf.
"It is the beginning of the end of Musharraf. Things may have to
start all over again if there is a change of regime," he said.
India has lately become circumspect about any serious dialogue with
the Musharraf regime in Pakistan, especially after recent
pronouncements by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif that he will
not honour any treaty Musharraf signs with New Delhi.
In a recent interview with NDTV, Sharif, currently in exile in
London and who is planning to contest the coming elections which
Musharraf has promised will be held by November, said he "doesn't
recognise Musharraf as the president of Pakistan or a legitimate
president of Pakistan" and therefore he will not recognise any
treaty or document he signs with India.
He also questioned Musharraf's style of carrying on the peace
process with India by tossing "off-the-cuff" remarks about Kashmir
through the media without evolving a broad-based consensus on key
issues with India.
Sharif's reference was to Musharraf's four-point proposal revolving
around joint management of Kashmir, self-governance,
demilitarisation and making the Line of Control relevant.
"So I will not recognise anything that he signs with India," he said
in a clear message to New Delhi not to put all its eggs in the
Musharraf basket but to wait for a democratic regime to return in
Pakistan.
While the prospects of Sharif or likely fellow-traveller Benazir
Bhutto coming to power are not so bright, given the present state of
disunity and disarray among the opposition parties, India has done
its own calculations and has maintained that it will deal with
whoever is in power.
There is, however, a subtle shift in the thinking in South Block -
from Musharraf being good for the peace process to keeping its cards
close to the chest till the dust settles by the time elections are
held towards the end of the year.
What it means in practical terms is keeping the peace process going
under the framework of the composite dialogue, albeit with greater
realism and caution and not expecting any significant movement on
any key issues - be it Kashmir or Siachen or Sir Creek.
It also means that for all practical purposes the much-speculated
visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Pakistan is off, at least
for this year. So it looks.
Compounding uncertainty is the calculated ambiguity in Washington on
its dealings with Musharraf.
On the one hand, an influential section of the Washington
establishment thinks that it's time for the US to junk the Musharraf
regime and bet on a democratic alternative. On the other, official
voices have tended to be more cautious and reiterated the importance
of Musharraf being in the saddle for the success of the American war
against terror.
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