St. Petersburg, Jan 17
Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other gases emitted through
human activity, generally believed to trap heat in the earth's
atmosphere, are an effect rather than the cause of global warming,
according to a prominent Russian scientist.
Habibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the
St. Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory, said global warming stems
from an increase in the sun's activity.
His view contradicts the international scientific consensus that
climate change occurs due to the emission of greenhouse gases
generated by industrial activities, such as the burning of fossil
fuels and deforestation.
"Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar
radiation and a lengthy – almost throughout the last century –
growth in its intensity," Abdusamatov told RIA Novosti in an
interview.
"It is no secret that when they go up, temperatures in the world's
oceans trigger the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere. So the common view that man's industrial activity is
a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a
misinterpretation of cause and effect relations."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN panel of
thousands of international scientists, widely regarded as an
authority on climate change issues, has for many years held a
consensus that most of the warming experienced over the last
half-century has been attributable to human activities.
Abdusamatov, a doctor of mathematics and physics, is one of a small
number of scientists around the world who continue to contest the
view of IPCC, the national science academies of G8 nations, and
other prominent scientific bodies.
He said an examination of ice cores from wells over three kilometers
deep in Greenland and the Antarctic indicates that the earth
experienced periods of global warming even before the industrial
age.
Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since the 19th
century. The phenomenon by which gases such as methane and CO2 warm
the troposphere by absorbing some of the infra red heat reflected by
the earth's surface has the effect of a global thermostat,
sustaining global temperatures within ranges that allow life on the
planet to thrive.
The upper layers of the world's oceans are - much to climatologists'
surprise - becoming cooler, which is a clear indication that the
earth has hit its temperature ceiling already, and that solar
radiation levels are falling and will eventually lead to a worldwide
cold spell, Abdusamatov said.
"Instead of professed global warming, the earth will be facing a
slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-2015. The gradually falling
amounts of solar energy, expected to reach their bottom level by
2040, will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-2060," he
said, adding that this period of global freeze will last some 50
years, after which the temperatures will go up again.
"There is no need for the Kyoto Protocol now, and it does not have
to come into force until at least a hundred years from now - a
global freeze will come about regardless of whether or not
industrialized countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas
emissions," Abdusamatov said.
The 1998 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change, which sets greenhouse gas emission targets for the period up
to 2012, entered into force two years ago following ratification by
141 countries, which together account for over 55 percent of the
world's gas pollutions.
Russia ratified the treaty in November 2004, making it legally
binding. But the world's top polluter, the United States, is still
reluctant to sign on for fear the treaty's emission commitments will
slow down the country's economic growth.
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