December
31, 2007 N-deal Slows Down,
as Pakistan Turmoil Worries India By
Manish Chand
New Delhi
It was a contentious year for Indian diplomacy as a politically
divisive debate threatened to swamp its seminal nuclear deal with
the US and the peace process with Pakistan slowed down due to unrest
in that country that at the yearend was a grave concern not only to
India but to the entire region.
Although domestic political opposition slowed down the process of
operationalising the nuclear deal, the most ambitious foreign policy
initiative of the Manmohan Singh government, it did not prevent the
country from deepening its relations with other leading global
players, including the US, Russia, China, Japan and the 27-nation
European Union.
The nuclear deal, which aimed at the resumption of global civil
nuclear commerce after a hiatus of three decades, consistently
dominated headlines through the year and almost threatened to bring
down the government with its Leftist allies ominously warning the
ruling coalition to either stop the deal mid-way or face early
elections.
India's chief opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),
ironically joined hands with the Left, proclaimed antagonists of
"American imperialism", to ensure that the deal dies a natural
death.
As politics overshadowed the nuclear debate, it was the context of
the India-US strategic relationship and not the text of the 123
India-US civil nuclear agreement finalised in July that came to
dominate the discourse.
As the year ends, the government is in the middle of its
negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to
conclude a safeguards pact - a key step before the 45-nation Nuclear
Suppliers Group considers changing its guidelines to favour nuclear
commerce with New Delhi.
Time is at a premium as the 123 agreement, after the IAEA pact and
NSG's change in guidelines, has to be endorsed by the US Congress
which is likely to be swamped by election fever by the middle of
next year.
Amid leftwing criticism that the country's much-vaunted non-aligned
foreign policy was taking a pro-US tilt, Manmohan Singh's visit to
Russia in November sought to reaffirm the continuing vitality of
traditional ties as the two countries signed a landmark deal on
joint unmanned lunar exploration and signed deals to resolve
decades-old wrangling over rupee-rouble trade and to build a
cutting-edge fighter jet.
The India-EU summit Nov 30 and visits by German chancellor Angela
Merkel and the then Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe to India also
reflected India's efforts to deepen ties with all major power
centres of the world.
India's immediate neighbourhood, however, was hardly a cause for
much cheer. India's peace process with Pakistan languished due to
political turmoil and intermittent violence in the neighbouring
country with a cautious New Delhi guarded in its responses so as not
to upset the existing diplomatic equilibrium.
Despite worldwide criticism of the emergency in Pakistan, which was
imposed Nov 3 and lifted Dec 15, National Security Adviser M.K.
Narayanan articulated India's position when he said that Pakistan
President Pervez Musharraf continues to be "a credible interlocutor"
and stressed that New Delhi will continue to do business with
whoever is in power in Islamabad.
But the Dec 27 assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto
at an election rally in Rawalpindi threatened to plunge Pakistan
further into chaos, raising worries in New Delhi about the country's
long-term stability and the safety of its nuclear arsenal.
Building a peaceful periphery, necessary for India's continuing
growth and stability, however, remained elusive with Bangladesh,
slipping under the rule of an army-backed interim administration,
continuing ethnic violence in Sri Lanka and democracy still a
distant goal in Nepal.
The ongoing transformation of the South Asian Association of
Regional Cooperation (SAARC) that included Afghanistan as its eight
member this year from a yawn-inducing talking shop to an
action-oriented regional outfit is one of the success stories of the
year, albeit an unstated one.
After much debate, the leaders of the South Asian nations have
agreed to create a security network, conclude a mutual legal
assistance treaty and energise transport networks to enhance
physical and mental connectivity that has the potential to bring new
stability and prosperity to the region that is home to one fourth of
the world's population.
Although some say that the freezing of the nuclear deal will dent
the country's image and credibility, this did not dampen enthusiasm
in the world's major capitals from seeking greater engagement with a
rising Asian power, with an economy steadily growing at the rate of
over eight percent over the last few years.
"We are heading in the right direction. The world's respect for
India is growing. American power is declining. India and China are
in the ascendant and continue to be key drivers of economic growth,"
K. Subrahmanyam, a leading strategic expert, told IANS.
Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon summed up this mood of national
confidence and optimism in a year-end speech he gave recently. "As a
result of 25 years of 6 per cent growth, our reforms since 1991,
India is today in a position to engage with the world in an
unprecedented manner," he said.
"Our engagement with the global economy is growing rapidly, with
trade in goods and services now exceeding US$ 330 billion. Our needs
from the world have changed, as has our capability. India can do and
consider things that we could not do or consider twenty years ago,"
he said.
There were moments of triumph, too. The election of India's high
commissioner to Britain, Kamalesh Sharma, as the secretary general
of the 53-nation Commonwealth at its summit in Kampala in November
came as a morale booster, after Shashi Tharoor, the then UN
undersecretary general, lost out to South Korea's Ban Ki Moon for
the post of the UN Secretary General last year.
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